European Ocean Biodiversity Information System
[ report an error in this record ]basket (0): add | show Print this page
Modelling pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) wintering distributions for the year 2050: potential effects of land-use change in Europe
Wisz, M.; Dendoncker, N.; Madsen, J.; Rounsevell, M.; Jespersen, M.; Kuijken, E.; Courtens, W.; Verscheure, C.; Cottaar, F. (2008). Modelling pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) wintering distributions for the year 2050: potential effects of land-use change in Europe. Diversity Distrib. 14(5): 721-731. dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2008.00476.x
In: Diversity and Distributions. Blackwell: Oxford. ISSN 1366-9516; e-ISSN 1472-4642
Peer reviewed article  
Available in  Authors 
    Vlaams Instituut voor de Zee: Open Marine Archive 143136 [ download pdf ]
Keywords
    Biofuels
    Distribution
    Europe
    Land use
    Europe [Marine Regions]
    Marine/Coastal
Author keywords
    agricultural conflict; Anser brachyrhynchus; biofuel; future land-usescenario; species distribution model
Authors  Top 
  • Wisz, M.
  • Dendoncker, N.
  • Madsen, J.
  • Rounsevell, M.
  • Jespersen, M.
  • Kuijken, E.
  • Courtens, W.
  • Verscheure, C.
  • Cottaar, F.
Abstract
    Feeding on farmland by overwintering populations of pink-footed geese (Anser brachyrhynchus) conflicts with agricultural interests in Northern Europe. In order to forecast the potential future of this conflict, we used generalized linear models to relate the presence and absence of pink-footed geese to variables describing the contemporary landscape, and predicted their future distributions in relation to two land-use scenarios for the year 2050. One future scenario represented a global, economically orientated world (A1) and the other represented a regional, environmentally concerned world (B2). The probability of goose occurrence increased within cropland and grassland, and could be explained by their proximity to coast, elevation, and the degree of habitat closure. Predictions to future scenarios revealed noticeable shifts in the suitability of goose habitat evident at the local and regional scale in response to future shifts in land use. In particular, as grasslands and croplands give way to unsuitable land-use types (e.g. woody biofuel crops, increased urbanization, and forest) under both future scenarios, our models predicted a decrease in habitat suitability for geese. If coupled with continued goose population expansion, we expect that the agricultural conflict will intensify under the A1 and particularly the B2 scenarios.
All data in the Integrated Marine Information System (IMIS) is subject to the VLIZ privacy policy Top | Authors